每年年初，MIT科技评论(MIT Technology Review)都会做出该年十大科技预言。往年都是MIT 的编辑部操刀，但今年却邀请到一位赫赫有名的科技巨头来主笔—— 微软的创办人，也是前世界首富的比尔盖茨。让我们来看看MIT的首席编辑和比尔盖茨的对话吧，一段有可能改变2019的世界的对话。
Every year, MIT Technology Review makes a list of 10 break throughs we think will have a big impact on the world.
We've identified things like natural language processing, augmentedreality, CRISPR, wireless charging and gene therapy before they went mainstream.
So when we heard Bill Gates was inte变形计20140616rested in helping us choose thisyear's list, we jumped at the chance.
Through his 萨拉斯瓦蒂investing and the work of the Gates Foundation, he's thinking alot about where technology is going and how it can do the most goodfor the most people.
We offered Bill a short list, he ignored it almost entirely,this l全部影片ist is very much his own vision.我们向比尔提供了一份简短的参考名单，他几乎略过这份名单，直接规划起自己的愿景来。
I sat down with him to talk about what he picked.
M:editor of MIT Technology diciplineReciew
M:"You are famously optimistic and you know, you subscribe to the view of people like cants rustling and Steven Pinker that when you look atthe important indicators, lif刘诺一长大后肯定丑e has been getting better consistentlyfor billions of people.
How do you sustain that kind of opti4009286999mism in a world in which, you know,climate change is accelerating, we have political polarization anddisruption caused by social media, we have growing economicinequality which is fueled at least in part by automation and AI.
So,there's a lot of current worries about the technology having a harmful effect, how do you retain your optimism?"
B:"It's great that people are worried about the problems, because they require action, you know, even take inequity, globally inequity isdown, that is the poor countries are getting richer faster than thericher countries are getting richer."
B:"The bulk of humanity lives in middle-income countries today, if you goback 50 years, there were very very few middle-income countries.
It was pretty bimodal where we had India, China, Africa were poor andthen Europe, U. S. , Japan starting to be fairly well-off and notmuch in the middle.
Buttoday, China's at the high end of middle-income, India's at the lowof middle-income, Brazil, Indonesia.
It's a, it's a phenomenal story and the ability of science to洋娃娃王妃 sawproblems, you know, clearly in the case of heart disease and cancermake a lot of progress, some of the more chronic diseases likedepression diabetes.
I'moptimistic even obesity, you know, we're gaining some fundam饶太郎entalunderstandings of the microbiome and the signaling mechanismsinvolved in these things.
So,yes, I am optimistic. It does bother me that that most people aren'toptimistic.
And you kn本子同人ow so on抖阴tve of us is wrong and one of us is right.“
M:"Do you think that you have may be successful persons bios, in otherwords you… "
B:"Of course, we have to fact that in. "
B:"At my own life, you know, I've been extremely lucky, and you know the country I was born in, the education I got to have, the business workI got to do, even my foundation work is amazing and interesting work.
But even tracting out for my personal characteristics and personal experience, I think the big picture is that it's better to be born today than ever and it'll be better to be born 20 years from now than today.“
M:"So I want to talk about some of the individual technologies you picked for the list, one of them is lab-grown meat, which is still verytentative, still very expensive.
Why was that important enough to make the cut an中国石油大学北京,任务管理器,Blued do you, do you t青楼娱乐指南hink that in a, I don't know, a decade, two decades, we could seelab-grown meat replacing a substantial proportion of animal-grownmeat. ”
"Part of the reason I picked it is is to remind people that clean energy does not solve climate change.
You know every time you read about oh clean energy, that's it, we just need clean energy.
No, you don't, that's only about a quarter of the emissions come from electricity generation.
So here you have a gigantic piece that is from beef production and now this can be a substitute.
So this is a category that people weren't paying much attention as agreenhouse gas problem and yet I think the path to solve it is clearer than in say the cement or steel or other materials case.”
M:"Right,another technology you picked is AI, virtual assistants.
So the reference there is two improvements and things like naturallanguage processing, but you know, these are still AI is a basicallyvery dumb machines, they're done one narrow task really well…“
B:The computer is so stupid that when you're, when you present email, you don't let it order it for you, you don't trust it to have enough context to look at the material understand the relationships, and your calendar, that it orders them for you, you, you pick which application to run you, pick which item to open.
So it's working at a very very low level today.
I do think that we'll have executive assistant type capability in a fiveto ten year period. 我们认为在未来的五到十年内，我们能够拥有虚拟行政助理类型的技术。
Now, you know, I've known鼠尾蛆 to be too optimistic about some of these IT things in the past but the generally they have progressed.
And you know it's a huge priority project for companies like Google and Microsof未亡人在线t and on some things like translation, you know, the deep learning approaches are 殷少套路深surprisingly good, and so I work on that lotin my part-time work with Microsoft and you know I want one, so…”
M:"Right,so in that case it's gonna happen. ”